Miami heat vs San Antonio Spurs – 2013 NBA Finals
For the third time in a row, the Miami Heat will be present in the 2013 NBA Finals as a big favorite to claim a second straight championship title, facing the San Antonio Spurs who are making their fourth appearance in the last 11 years. The first game will start at 9pm ET – 6th june at American Airlines Arena.
The current article has been written using Parlayz Match Sheet which contains all the data needed to analyze the game. All the Tables, Stats and Predictions used in this analysis are from Parlayz.
You can check it here: http://parlayz.com/statistics/bask/nba/match/36231
Check out all the tabs in the match sheet! Enjoy!
It was not easy for the Heat to get past the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. They altered wins and losses throughout the 7-games series. But in the end, the Heat managed to pull off an astounding 99-76 victory over the Indiana Pacers.
The Spurs have won their last six games, including a 4-0 series vs the Memphis Grizzlies.
During the regular season, the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs confronted each other 2 times. But if we look back at their lineups, there weren’t any real encounter between the two big-3 squads.
BIG 3s vs BIGGER 3s: who will be the bigger ones?
San Antonio Spurs
Tony Parker vs Mario Chalmers (+ Norris Cole):
- In terms of quickness, Tony Parker has an edge on Mario Chalmers. In order to even the odds, Chalmers has to play an aggressive style as he did with the Indiana Pacers. Even though, him alone will be not enough to prevent Tony Parker from scoring. To make Parker work harder on the offense, Norris Cole will get half of the time. And also, in tough situations we might even witness Lebron James jumping in to guard against Parker.
- Parker is definitely on top for this match-up.
Dany Green (+ Gary Neal) vs Dwayne Wade:
- Throughout the season, we can see that Danny Green is one of the Spurs’ best perimeter defenders. He performs defensively. As we have seen with the Warriors and the Grizzlies, he is capable of holding his ground against Stephen Curry and Mike Conley. We haven’t witness yet a confrontation between Green and Wade, but that should be an interesting match-up as Wade is one of the best offensive player when it comes to big moments. In fact, Dwyane Wade can create shots on his own. He can draw contacts and find a loop in his opponents’ defense.
- In addition, we will probably see Gary Neal sharing time with Green in defending vs Wade. He’s also a good defensive player. Both of them have a similarity when it comes to playing the passing lanes. Leonard might spend some time guarding Wade as well. Despite the fact that Green and Neal aren’t as explosive as Wade, they can shoot from distance. Green shot 47% 3PTS vs the Grizzlies. And also let’s not forget that Wade is going through some rough times, trying to get back to 100%. Recently, he couldn’t find the rhythm on offense he was used to.
- Wade should have an edge if he manages to get back on his feet.
Some way, some how, if you give me enough time, I’ll figure it out.
In fact, Miami has given him enough time already, but he couldn’t deliver until game 7 in the series vs the Pacers. But will the Spurs let him get enough time?
Kawhi Leonard vs Lebron James:
- There’s nothing much to talk about Lebron James. Without him, the Heat wouldn’t be present in this year NBA Finals. He’s not the same guy who lead the Cleveland Cavaliers to the 07’ Finals. He now reads defense better, he anticipates better when it comes to action, shooting from perimeter has become a regular breakfast for him, he works in the post more efficiently now. And finally, let’s not forget he has all star team mates now.
- When it comes to Kawhi Leonard, he’s a performant defender who lead the Spurs to become one of the best defenses in the West. His quickness and strength is the reason why Gregg Popovich will choose him to go against James. In Popovich plan, Leonard doesn’t need to score much and should focus only on defending the MVP that is Lebron James.
- Even though, James has an amazing ability to score points in any position, Leonard will surely pose a threat to James figures. If he manages to keep Lebron James under 25 points per game it will be a success for the Spurs. In this challenge, Leonard is certainly in the inferior spot but who knows, he might be the key to the Spurs victory.
Duncan vs Udonis Haslem (+ Chris Andersen, aka the Birdman):
- Tim Duncan, as we can now confirm, is among the best basketball players of all times. Soon turning 37, he averages 18 Points and 9 Rebounds in the Playoffs. Moreover, combined with Tiago Splitter, they form the Spurs key defense. Duncan can navigate the floor as if he was Marco Polo with the sea. Times to times, Tim Duncan will also operate against Chris Bosh.
- Defending him will be the task of Udonis Haslem, Heat’s starting PF. He is “ok” on defense if not good but he has difficulty with players higher than him. On the offense, Haslem is surely not consistent as Duncan and he’s not a very good scorer. While for the “Birdman” Chris Andersen, he has an impressive offensive efficiency despite the few scoring attempts he made. He has given the Heat a boost off the bench.
- In summary, Tim Duncan has the advantage on this one.
Tiago Splitter vs Chris Bosh:
- Chris Bosh is a player that can score from all areas. He’s versatile and agile for his position. Let’s remember also that he can put some threes. However, he’s not a terrific post defender. Bosh is comfortable with jump shots from the perimeter, rather than pounding the defense. From a general point of view, Bosh has an edge. He’s more keen to put some baskets than Splitter. But in his current state, he’s struggling in regaining his efficiency. In this postseason, he only scored around 12 points per game with 38% shooting.
- In the contrast, Tiago Splitter is the exact opposite. He prefers the paint and protect the rim fiercely and do not shoot very well on the perimeter. Splitter cannot compete with Bosh offensively but he can definitely help his team mates get open 3s.
- Tiago Splitter and Chris Bosh are in theory the centers in this series, but they will not guard each other exclusively. Duncan will be on the aim of Bosh and Splitter will have to fight against Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen sometimes.
- In theory, Bosh should come out ahead but it all depends on his capacity to regain his efficiency.
- The Spurs’ bench will primarily feature Manu Ginobili, Gary Neal, Matt Bonner, Boris Diaw and Cory Joseph. While recently struggling, Manu Ginobili has proven in big games and can be explosive at any moment. Bonner will pose as an outside shooting threat and Joseph continues to develop with more floor time.
- Miami has a bench composed of All-Star Ray Allen, Chris Andersen and Norris Cole who could make things difficult for Joseph in the battle of the second unit guards. Also let’s not forget Shane Battier who will probably play more time in this series as he matches up better against the Spurs on the wing.
- IMHO, the Spurs has a better bench than the Heat, but everything can go either way.
Coaching: Erik Spoelstra vs Gregg Popovich:
- Erik Spoelstra is on his way finishing his fifth season as an NBA coach, while Gregg Popovich has been with the Spurs nearly two decades. Both have experienced Playoffs and Finals situations. At the end of the day, Gregg Popovich still exceeds Spoelstra at coaching and anticipating opponents’ moves. He’s the wizard of basketball tactics.
The Spurs tends to play at a high pace (average : 96 possessions) while the Heat in contrary gets around 91-92 possessions a game.
At Parlayz, we think that the San Antonio Spurs will win the championship in no less than 6 games. In the current situation, Wade and Bosh is not up to their standards, that’s why we predict the Spurs to win. But that could really go the other way as both teams are very equal in terms of performance.
The San Antonio Spurs will try to get one game for the first 2 encounters at the Heat AA Arena.
And also based on three models: we think the bet SAS +5.5 is a good one for the 1st game.
Model 1: http://parlayz.com/cong/team_def_eff/implementations/12466 (51% – ML: MIA | HC: SAS +5.5)
Model 2: http://parlayz.com/cong/team_def_eff/implementations/12466 (53% – ML: SAS | HC: SAS +5.5)
Model 3: http://parlayz.com/sixerer/nba_player_eff/implementations/12472 (51% – ML: SAS | HC: SAS +5.5)
Enjoy the game everyone!